technical analyst watch nifty Testing at or below the 15,000 level after falling 5.6% last week. Nifty closed at 15,293.50 on Friday and most of the regional peers underperformed during the week.

While some show a rebound Market, it will be difficult to maintain high. Some even see that the index has fallen to the level of 14,800. A fall below 14,880 would mean that Nifty has entered a bear phase as it would mean that the index has fallen 20% from its record high hit in October 2021. Analysts said a bounce back is possible but it will not be a trend reversal.

Ajit Mishra
VP-Technical,

broking



Where is Nifty going?

Nifty has finally crossed the crucial support area at 15,670 levels i.e. March 2022, moving towards the lower band of the low and now falling extension which currently exists around 14,800 levels. It is important to note that any level below 14,880 would mark an entry into a bear phase i.e. a decline of 20% from its record high of 18,604.45. Amidst all the negativity, we may also see some intermediate relief due to oversold US market But the 15,550-15,700 zone will act as a strong barrier.

What do you want investors Doing?

Investors should continue with the “sell on the rise” approach until the trend reverses. Any rally towards the 15,550-15,700 resistance area will provide an opportunity to form shorts. However, due to extreme overnight volatility, it is prudent to trade futures through options strategies such as bear put spreads rather than naked shorts. In regions, the energy pack appears more vulnerable to fresh fall. In addition, we are closely monitoring the 32,000 mark in the banking index as a make or break level. On the other hand, Auto Pack is still showing comparatively better performance, while Pharma and . select stocks of FMCG There may be some respite after the recent fall. Participants should align their positions accordingly. So.

Rohit Srivastava
Founder, INDIACHARTS.COM

Where is Nifty going?

Based on the RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator, Nifty has fallen significantly in two weeks. The last two times this meant that the market reverted to a countertrend move before going down. This time should be no different. This week Nifty may try to bounce back to 15,800-16,000 with a sudden jump, but this move is not a trend reversal. Once bounced off, the downtrend may resume as there will be selling pressure at higher levels. Overall, we see Nifty going down at 14,500 in the coming weeks.

What should investors do?

Falling oil and gas prices may provide some respite to the markets from the risk of further inflation. It also means that the only strong sector, Energy Oil & Gas, will start to underperform. This means there may be little hiding place for investors in the near future. A short term bounce in Nifty is best played with index futures as the rotation between stocks or sectors in a bear market makes it difficult to predict which one will definitely go up. On the other hand, during the fall, I would expect a more widespread decline.

Sriram Velayudhan:
Vice President – Alternative Research, IIFL

Where is Nifty going?

Last week, Nifty finally broke the key range of 15,650-15,750 which was acting as a strong support cluster during this period. Weekly close below 15,400 has created important support for further decline towards 14,800 level. Even the market breadth indicators are clearly pointing to more caution. The index is now facing strong resistance at 15,650 and 15,750 levels.

What should investors do?

As momentum oscillators are highly oversold, there can be examples of sharp bouts of short covering. However, we believe that traders should use such opportunities to create short positions in the index. Any rise up to the level of 15,450 can be used by traders to create short positions in Nifty futures with a stop loss of 15,800 with a target of 14,800. Investors with a medium-term horizon can use dips to accumulate shares such as:

and Mahindra & Mahindra.